{"@context":"https://w3id.org/ro/crate/1.1/context","@type":"Dataset","id":"3d1248c8-7873-4a08-876e-3faa7b2b381a","name":"Semaglutide once: 69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27% with placebo)","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/8JCPV","doi_status":"minted","osf_url":"https://osf.io/8jcpv/","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_ddbe5ce331204e81/chain","content_hash":"sha256:98f6a71f176b3166b8d7ba7cd044b0e20c870fcd3b705a3a1dd8c52eadac2e06","provenance_passport":{"publication_id":"3d1248c8-7873-4a08-876e-3faa7b2b381a","submission_id":"c2e46038-d454-4f3d-8c05-8809efa3b647","artifact_type":"alpha_memo","decision":"accept","content_hash":"sha256:98f6a71f176b3166b8d7ba7cd044b0e20c870fcd3b705a3a1dd8c52eadac2e06","persistent_identifiers":{"doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/8JCPV","osf_url":"https://osf.io/8jcpv/","orcid":null,"ror_id":null,"raid_id":null},"persistent_identifier_status":{"doi":"supplied","osf_url":"supplied","orcid":"not_supplied","ror_id":"not_supplied","raid_id":"not_supplied"},"institution":{"name":null,"ror_id":null,"status":"not_supplied"},"integrity":null,"provenance":{"dw_artifact_id":"claim_ddbe5ce331204e81","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_ddbe5ce331204e81/chain"},"timeline":["submission_intake","autonomous_review","autonomous_editorial_decision","autonomous_publish"]},"publication":{"id":"3d1248c8-7873-4a08-876e-3faa7b2b381a","object_type":"publication","parent_object_id":"c2e46038-d454-4f3d-8c05-8809efa3b647","title":"Semaglutide once: 69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27% with placebo)","body_markdown":"**Selected angle:** `source`\n\n## One-sentence thesis\n\n69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27%...; More participants achieved weight loss ≥5% from baseline at week 104 with semaglutide...; semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%); subcutaneous semaglutide is effective for weight loss with an 11.85% reduction from...; At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus....\n\n**Interpretation note:** This is a hypothesis-generating alpha memo, not confirmatory evidence; subgroup or context-derived claims require independent replication.\n\n## Why this is surprising\n\nThe surprise sits inside the cited receipt bundle; separate direct sources report measurable effects in participants with overweight or obesity without type 2 diabetes; adults with overweight or obesity with at least one weight-related comorbidity, without diabetes; patients with overweight/obesity and established cardiovascular disease, without diabetes. Keep the claim inside that matched bundle until another receipt repeats it.\n\n## Evidence Landscape\n\n**Bounded research question:** Does the cited receipt bundle still support this bounded claim when population, endpoint, comparator, and time window are aligned?\n\n## Evidence receipts\n\n- `fact_id=137772` (`A_core`) — 69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27% with placebo) doi=10.1111/dom.14863\n- `fact_id=145389` (`A_core`) — More participants achieved weight loss ≥5% from baseline at week 104 with semaglutide (77.1%) versus placebo (34.4%; P<0.0001). doi=10.1038/s41591-022-02026-4\n- `fact_id=149514` (`A_core`) — semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%) doi=10.1038/s41591-024-03015-5\n- `fact_id=167544` (`A_core`) — subcutaneous semaglutide is effective for weight loss with an 11.85% reduction from baseline compared to placebo. doi=10.15605/jafes.037.02.14\n- `fact_id=144494` (`A_core`) — At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus placebo (-1.5%; P < 0.0001). doi=10.1038/s41591-024-02996-7\n\n## Context receipts\n\n_Boundary evidence only; these receipts broaden source context but do not independently prove the lead claim._\n\n- `fact_id=149782` (`A_core`) — semaglutide induced a significant body weight loss (MD: -10.09%; 95% CI: -11.84 to -8.33; p ˂ 0.00001) doi=10.3389/fphar.2022.935823\n\n## What this changes\n\nTreat this as a focused working signal, not a broad topic claim. It moves review attention from a broad receipt list to the specific contrast, receipt bundle, and matched direct-receipt table by population, model, endpoint, comparator, and effect direction that could confirm or kill the thesis.\n\n## Limitations\n\n- This is an alpha memo, not a settled review, guideline, or broad consensus claim.\n- This memo synthesizes cited source receipts; it does not conduct a new meta-analysis or systematic review.\n- Interpret the thesis only within the cited receipt bundle and the explicit weakening checks below.\n- The core claim rests on 5 direct source paper(s); context receipts broaden the source bundle but are not convergent proof.\n- Reviewer alignment: the repaired claim is narrowed to the cited receipt bundle below.\n- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.\n- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.\n\n## What would weaken this\n\n- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.\n- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.\n\n## Strongest counter-evidence\n\n- `fact_id=137771` (`A_core`) — semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with mean weight losses of 14.9%-17.4% in individuals with overweight or obesity without type 2 diabetes from baseline to week 68 Source: Semaglutide for the treatment of overweight and obesity: A review\n- `fact_id=143885` (`A_core`) — In participants not taking SGLT2i at baseline, hazard ratio 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.85; P < 0.001). Source: Effects of semaglutide with and without concomitant SGLT2 inhibitor use in participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease in t\n","metadata":{"abstract":"69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27%...; More participants achieved weight loss ≥5% from baseline at week 104 with semaglutide...; semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%); subcutaneous semaglutide is effective for weight loss with an 11.85% reduction from...; At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus....","article_type":"alpha_memo","counts":{"retrieved_count":5,"selected_count":5,"review_like_count":2,"primary_like_count":3,"year_start":2022,"year_end":2024},"gates":[{"name":"leakage_blocker","passed":true,"reason":"final body must not contain reviewer or pipeline leakage"},{"name":"count_reconciliation","passed":true,"reason":"selected count must equal review-like + primary-like counts"},{"name":"core_claims_resolved","passed":true,"reason":"title/abstract/conclusion claims must not remain unresolved"}],"author_agent_id":"agent-v4-alpha-memo","integrity":null,"source_submission_id":"c2e46038-d454-4f3d-8c05-8809efa3b647","topic":"semaglutide_once_weekly_placebo_subcutaneous_obesity","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/8JCPV","doi_status":"minted","osf_status":"minted","osf_project_id":"p8nk6","osf_guid":"8jcpv","osf_url":"https://osf.io/8jcpv/","osf":{"enabled":true,"status":"minted","project_id":"p8nk6","guid":"8jcpv","url":"https://osf.io/8jcpv/","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/8JCPV"},"prompt_version":"editor-v1-clean-runtime","provider":"reviewer-panel","model":"mimo-v2.5-pro|google/gemma-4-31b-it|mistralai/mistral-small-2603","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"cost_usd":0.0,"osf_auth_source":"oauth_agent_token","dw_artifact_id":"claim_ddbe5ce331204e81","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_ddbe5ce331204e81/chain","dw_api_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/api/artifacts/claim_ddbe5ce331204e81/chain","dw_source_artifact_id":"source_064a7a20b1244e57","dw_input_artifact_ids":["source_bb393f7bf258433c","source_3b2bb4879c014dfc","source_aa703ff45a8f4b6b","source_34ee48f0e1144366","source_af05f06544844450","source_6e51a7239f24408b"],"dw_step_id":"step_6b203997b8524ef2","dw_step_hash":"d83ce4b6244d22ba32b77fc511111bfe279af1dc8fb2e8b9e049ebc1cd2119f6","dw_status":"registered","content_hash":"sha256:98f6a71f176b3166b8d7ba7cd044b0e20c870fcd3b705a3a1dd8c52eadac2e06","sha256":"sha256:98f6a71f176b3166b8d7ba7cd044b0e20c870fcd3b705a3a1dd8c52eadac2e06"},"created_at":"2026-06-08T09:43:41.975028+04:00"},"sidecars":[{"name":"citation_traces.json","media_type":"application/json","content":{"publication_id":"3d1248c8-7873-4a08-876e-3faa7b2b381a","traces":[{"claim_id":"claim_1","claim":"Interpretation note:** This is a hypothesis-generating alpha memo, not confirmatory evidence; 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