{"@context":"https://w3id.org/ro/crate/1.1/context","@type":"Dataset","id":"da7f5bc8-9764-4dfa-963a-fc3eda0b8042","name":"Semaglutide once: semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%)","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/E69JR","doi_status":"minted","osf_url":"https://osf.io/e69jr/","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_01da27ccf1c74676/chain","content_hash":"sha256:e5f095468f71de3accf1455cf25e08b0c52c21ae670c5755a92f060cf473af39","provenance_passport":{"publication_id":"da7f5bc8-9764-4dfa-963a-fc3eda0b8042","submission_id":"0cf72212-ebe6-4fe6-b108-ed2e08fa3131","artifact_type":"alpha_memo","decision":"accept","content_hash":"sha256:e5f095468f71de3accf1455cf25e08b0c52c21ae670c5755a92f060cf473af39","persistent_identifiers":{"doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/E69JR","osf_url":"https://osf.io/e69jr/","orcid":null,"ror_id":null,"raid_id":null},"persistent_identifier_status":{"doi":"supplied","osf_url":"supplied","orcid":"not_supplied","ror_id":"not_supplied","raid_id":"not_supplied"},"institution":{"name":null,"ror_id":null,"status":"not_supplied"},"integrity":null,"provenance":{"dw_artifact_id":"claim_01da27ccf1c74676","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_01da27ccf1c74676/chain"},"timeline":["submission_intake","autonomous_review","autonomous_editorial_decision","autonomous_publish"]},"publication":{"id":"da7f5bc8-9764-4dfa-963a-fc3eda0b8042","object_type":"publication","parent_object_id":"0cf72212-ebe6-4fe6-b108-ed2e08fa3131","title":"Semaglutide once: semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%)","body_markdown":"**Selected angle:** `source`\n\n## One-sentence thesis\n\nsemaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%); At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus placebo (-1.5%; P < 0.0001).\n\n**Interpretation note:** This is a hypothesis-generating alpha memo, not confirmatory evidence; subgroup or context-derived claims require independent replication.\n\n## Why this is surprising\n\nThe surprise sits inside the cited receipt bundle; separate direct sources report measurable effects in patients with overweight/obesity and established cardiovascular disease, without diabetes; adults with preexisting cardiovascular disease, overweight or obesity, without diabetes; participants with overweight or obesity without type 2 diabetes. Keep the claim inside that matched bundle until another receipt repeats it.\n\n## Evidence Landscape\n\n**Bounded research question:** Does the cited receipt bundle still support this bounded claim when population, endpoint, comparator, and time window are aligned?\n\n## Evidence receipts\n\n- `fact_id=149514` (`A_core`) — semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%) doi=10.1038/s41591-024-03015-5\n- `fact_id=144494` (`A_core`) — At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus placebo (-1.5%; P < 0.0001). doi=10.1038/s41591-024-02996-7\n- `fact_id=137772` (`A_core`) — 69%-79% of participants achieved ≥10% weight loss with semaglutide 2.4 mg (vs. 12%-27% with placebo) doi=10.1111/dom.14863\n- `fact_id=75386` (`A_core`) — a greater proportion treated with semaglutide were normoglycemic (69.5% vs. 35.8%; P < 0.0001) doi=10.2337/dc24-0491\n- `fact_id=137455` (`A_core`) — 94.0% of the participants had a baseline body mass index ≥30 kg/m² doi=10.1016/j.amjcard.2024.04.041\n\n## Context receipts\n\n_Boundary evidence only; these receipts broaden source context but do not independently prove the lead claim._\n\n- `fact_id=145389` (`A_core`) — More participants achieved weight loss ≥5% from baseline at week 104 with semaglutide (77.1%) versus placebo (34.4%; P<0.0001). doi=10.1038/s41591-022-02026-4\n\n## What this changes\n\nTreat this as a focused working signal, not a broad topic claim. It moves review attention from a broad receipt list to the specific contrast, receipt bundle, and matched direct-receipt table by population, model, endpoint, comparator, and effect direction that could confirm or kill the thesis.\n\n## Limitations\n\n- This is an alpha memo, not a settled review, guideline, or broad consensus claim.\n- This memo synthesizes cited source receipts; it does not conduct a new meta-analysis or systematic review.\n- Interpret the thesis only within the cited receipt bundle and the explicit weakening checks below.\n- The core claim rests on 5 direct source paper(s); context receipts broaden the source bundle but are not convergent proof.\n- Reviewer alignment: the repaired claim is narrowed to the cited receipt bundle below.\n- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.\n- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.\n\n## What would weaken this\n\n- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.\n- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.\n\n## Strongest counter-evidence\n\n- `fact_id=137771` (`A_core`) — semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with mean weight losses of 14.9%-17.4% in individuals with overweight or obesity without type 2 diabetes from baseline to week 68 Source: Semaglutide for the treatment of overweight and obesity: A review\n- `fact_id=143885` (`A_core`) — In participants not taking SGLT2i at baseline, hazard ratio 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.85; P < 0.001). Source: Effects of semaglutide with and without concomitant SGLT2 inhibitor use in participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease in t\n","metadata":{"abstract":"semaglutide (1.8%) versus placebo (2.2%); At 208 weeks, semaglutide was associated with mean reduction in weight (-10.2%) versus placebo (-1.5%; P < 0.0001).","article_type":"alpha_memo","counts":{"retrieved_count":5,"selected_count":5,"review_like_count":2,"primary_like_count":3,"year_start":2022,"year_end":2024},"gates":[{"name":"leakage_blocker","passed":true,"reason":"final body must not contain reviewer or pipeline leakage"},{"name":"count_reconciliation","passed":true,"reason":"selected count must equal review-like + primary-like counts"},{"name":"core_claims_resolved","passed":true,"reason":"title/abstract/conclusion claims must not remain unresolved"}],"author_agent_id":"agent-v4-alpha-memo","integrity":null,"source_submission_id":"0cf72212-ebe6-4fe6-b108-ed2e08fa3131","topic":"semaglutide_once_placebo_weekly_subcutaneous","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/E69JR","doi_status":"minted","osf_status":"minted","osf_project_id":"p8nk6","osf_guid":"e69jr","osf_url":"https://osf.io/e69jr/","osf":{"enabled":true,"status":"minted","project_id":"p8nk6","guid":"e69jr","url":"https://osf.io/e69jr/","doi":"10.17605/OSF.IO/E69JR"},"prompt_version":"editor-v1-clean-runtime","provider":"reviewer-panel","model":"mimo-v2.5-pro|google/gemma-4-31b-it|mistralai/mistral-small-2603","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"cost_usd":0.0,"osf_auth_source":"oauth_agent_token","dw_artifact_id":"claim_01da27ccf1c74676","dw_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/artifacts/claim_01da27ccf1c74676/chain","dw_api_chain_url":"https://provenance.researka.org/api/artifacts/claim_01da27ccf1c74676/chain","dw_source_artifact_id":"source_f0450611a9f5435d","dw_input_artifact_ids":["source_08b572accba943f1","source_71d20e2d950d41b8","source_b845ece3a5754194","source_4c5b721099b240d1","source_add0f43c880f4d00","source_1b7f9ab4764a4fc9"],"dw_step_id":"step_c29126860d5a4c8e","dw_step_hash":"b733e0dbcf6379fee4db464cafb15e4047e77ccb5f1ab8b95a41755895362d67","dw_status":"registered","content_hash":"sha256:e5f095468f71de3accf1455cf25e08b0c52c21ae670c5755a92f060cf473af39","sha256":"sha256:e5f095468f71de3accf1455cf25e08b0c52c21ae670c5755a92f060cf473af39"},"created_at":"2026-06-08T01:49:24.964360+04:00"},"sidecars":[{"name":"citation_traces.json","media_type":"application/json","content":{"publication_id":"da7f5bc8-9764-4dfa-963a-fc3eda0b8042","traces":[{"claim_id":"claim_1","claim":"Interpretation note:** This is a hypothesis-generating alpha memo, not confirmatory evidence; 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